| 基于季节ARIMA模型的电力负荷建模与预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 安德洪,柳湘月,刘嘉焜,许树荆.基于季节ARIMA模型的电力负荷建模与预报[J].天津大学学报(自然科学与工程技术版),2004,37(2):184-187. |
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| 作者姓名： | 安德洪 柳湘月 刘嘉焜 许树荆 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072 [2]天津大学理学院,天津300072 [3]天津市华苑电力有限公司,天津300384 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(重大90104015)，刘徽应用数学中心(T08)资助项目. |
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| 摘 要： | 电力负荷是影响电网寿命和可靠度的一个重要因素，将季节ARIMA模型引入电力负荷的建模及预报，为电力资源分配的宏观调控及电网改造提供了一种可靠的方法和途径，文中用频谱分析的方法检验电力负荷的季节性并求出一个周期；介绍了具有一个周期的季节ARIMA模型的一般表达方式，并给出进行建模及预报的一般过程，以天津市华苑小区的电力负荷为例，进行了季节ARIMA模型的建模及预报。
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| 关 键 词： | 季节ARIMA模型 电力负荷 预报 建模 |
| 文章编号： | 0493-2137(2004)02-0184-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年9月26日 |
Traffic Modeling and Predication Using Seasonal ARIMA Models in Power System |
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| AN De-hong,LIU Xiang-yue,LIU Jia-kun,XU Shu-jing.Traffic Modeling and Predication Using Seasonal ARIMA Models in Power System[J].Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology),2004,37(2):184-187. |
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| Authors: | AN De-hong LIU Xiang-yue LIU Jia-kun XU Shu-jing |
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| Affiliation: | AN De-hong~1,LIU Xiang-yue~2,LIU Jia-kun~2,XU Shu-jing~3 |
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| Abstract: | Power load is one of the factors which affect the nature life and reliability of network in power system.Since power load has obvious seasonal character,seasonal ARIMA models can be applied to capturing the power hehavior.By using frequency spectrum analysis,the seasonal character of power load was vertified and one period was obtained. Then a general expression of seasonal ARIMA models with one period was presented and procedures of modeling and predicting load via seasonal ARIMA models were provided.The feasibility-study experiments in Hua Yuan Residential Area,Tianjin,showed that seasonal ARIMA models can be used to model and to predict actual power. |
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| Keywords: | seasonal ARIMA models modeling for load forecasting |
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