| 1988-2010年全国疟疾发病率的灰色预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭海强,丁海龙,曲波,孙高.1988-2010年全国疟疾发病率的灰色预测模型研究[J].热带医学杂志,2011,11(6):639-640,643. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭海强 丁海龙 曲波 孙高 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计教研室,辽宁沈阳,110001 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(30700690) |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 描述分析我国近20年疟疾的发病率变化趋势,并进行预测,为疟疾的科学防控提供参考.方法 根据全国1988-2008年疟疾的报告发病率数据,拟合GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,并进行回代预测,外推预测2009和2010年的发病率.结果 1988-2009年全国疟疾报告发病率总体呈下降趋势,由12.56/10万降至1.06/10万.利用1988-2008年数据建立的GM(1,1)预测模型为:(y)(t+1)=-97.0998e-0.113t+109.5398,模型拟合精度较高(后验差比值C为0.4162,小误差概率P为0.95).模型预测2009、2010年全国疟疾发病率分别为1.08/10万和0.97/10万.结论 灰色模型GM(1,1)计算简便,预测结果准确,是一种较为理想的预测疟疾发展趋势的方法.
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| 关 键 词： | 疟疾 发病率 灰色预测模型 |
A study on the trend of malaria incidence in China in the recent 20 years with GM(1,1) |
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| GUO Hai-qiang,DING Hai-long,QU Bo,SUN Gao.A study on the trend of malaria incidence in China in the recent 20 years with GM(1,1)[J].Journal Of Tropical Medicine,2011,11(6):639-640,643. |
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| Authors: | GUO Hai-qiang DING Hai-long QU Bo SUN Gao |
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| Affiliation: | GUO Hai-qiang,DING Hai-long,QU Bo,SUN Gao(Department of Public Health,China Medical University,Liaoning,Shenyang 110001,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To describe and analyze the trends of malaria incidence in China during the recent 20 years,and to forecast the rate in the short future.It aims to provide scientific base for prevention and control of malaria.Methods The reported incidence rates of malaria from 1988 to 2008 were collected to establish GM(1,1) model for prediction.Those rates of 2009 and 2010 were predicted with the established model.Results The actual rates declined from 12.56 per 10 5 to 1.06 per 10 5 in the period of 1988 to 20... |
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| Keywords: | malaria incidence rate grey model GM(1 1) |
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