改进的灰色模型在船闸通过量预测中的应用

对灰色GM(1,1)模型进行了改进,通过函数变换改变序列的光滑度,以积分逼近值代替均值作为相邻时间间隔增长量,以提高发展系数精度,从而得到了比原GM(1,1)模型模拟精度高和适用法范围更广的新模型.并以苏北运河船闸历年累计货物通过量为实例,运用原始模型与改进模型对船闸通过量进行预测,预测值与真实值相比较后,证实了文中改进的灰色模型精度较高,适用范围更广.

Application of Improved Gray Forecasting Model in Forecasting Lock Freight Volume

The accuracy of gray forecasting model was increased by improving the smooth degree and the applicable scope was expanded by improving the algorithm of z.Based on the calendar total cargo of the locks in northern section of Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal,we used the gray model method and an improved gray model to forecast future freight volumes.Comparing the two forecasting results,we tested and verified that the improved gray forecasting model has higher accuracy and more extensive applicable scope,and it′s appropriate to be used in forecasting lock freight volume.