太湖及太浦河两岸地区洪涝风险分析及对策探讨

由于特殊的自然地理条件,加之人类活动频繁,太湖及太浦河两岸地区的防洪、水资源和水环境等问题交织在一起,导致洪涝风险成因复杂,洪水风险长期存在。分析了该地区的洪涝风险特性,包括太湖水位易涨难消、太浦河两岸地区洪涝风险互相转化、上下游洪水风险转移,以及下垫面、引调水的变化而导致的洪水风险分布随之调整等;根据分析结果,对该地区的洪涝风险类型进行了识别。在此基础上,提出了科学精细调度水利工程、提升平原河网洪水风险分析技术、建立洪水风险实时分析系统以及探索"风险共担"的洪水管理模式等方面的建议。

Flood risk analysis and countermeasures for Taihu Lake and Taipu River

Due to geographic position and human activities, flood disasters, water shortage and water pollution events have occurred many times in Taihu Lake and Taipu River. Therefore, we analyzed flood risk in this area. The results show that water level of the Taihu Lake can rise rapidly but drop slowly. There is a conflict between flooding in the Taipu River and drainage in the Hangjia Lake. It is also found that flood risk transfer exists in upstream and downstream of the Taipu River. In addition, the distribution of flood risk caused by the change of underlying surface and water diversion is changed accordingly. Based on these results, we identify the flood risk types. On this basis, we propose some countermeasures, such as developing scientific operation system in water conservancy projects, improving the ability to analyze the flood risk of river networks in plain, establishing the real time analysis system for the flood risk and exploring the risk mechanisms in the management of the flood risk.