| 基于时间序列分析的变形预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 王建生.基于时间序列分析的变形预报[J].测绘学院学报,2011(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王建生 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南省交通规划勘察设计院有限责任公司; |
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| 摘 要： | 研究了利用时间序列分析方法进行变形预报。首先叙述了变形观测数据预处理、时间序列平稳性检验、模型的选用和检验;然后针对一组实测数据,利用多项式提取趋势项,分析回归残差,建立了AR(2)预报模型,并利用模型进行了预报;最后将预报结果与实测数据比较,证明了预报模型的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列分析 变形预报 AR模型 自相关函数 平稳性 |
Deformation Prediction Based on Time Series Analysis |
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| WANG Jian-sheng.Deformation Prediction Based on Time Series Analysis[J].Journal of Institute of Surveying and Mapping,2011(2). |
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| Authors: | WANG Jian-sheng |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Jian-sheng (Henan Provincial Communications Planning,Survey & Design Institute Co.Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450052,China) |
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| Abstract: | The deformation prediction by use of time series analysis was studied.Firstly,the preprocessing of the deformation monitoring data,the stationary test of time series and the choice and test of the model were narrated.Then in accordance with a group of deformation monitoring data,the trend from deformation time series was extracted by use of the polynomial function,the regression residuals was analyzed,AR(2) prediction model was established and predicts was made by the model.Finally comprised prediction resu... |
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| Keywords: | series analysis deformation prediction AR model autocorrelation function stationarity |
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