基于统计分析的单跑道容量估计模型研究

利用概率与数据统计分析方法研究了机场跑道系统的容量估计问题，从理论上建立了估计各种容量的数学模型与方法。寻建模过程考虑了诸如机队混杂、跑道使用优先权、最后是近路线长度、空管有关间隔规定和飞行规则等多种因素的影响。在所提容量估计模型机方法的基础上，研究开发出机场容量评估系统，对机场理论容量和实际容量进行评估，并利用该系统以上海虹桥机场航斑运行的实际数据对虹桥机场容量进行了仿真计算，验证了所提模型和方

Research of Airport Capacity Estimation Model Based on Statistic Analysis

The estimation problem of departure capacity, land capacity and departure/land mixture capacity is investigated by one runway system. Theoretically a mathematical model and a estimation method are established. In modelling process, this paper considers the effects of the factors, including the mixture rate of airplanes , the priority of runway in use, the way of final approach and air traffic rules, etc. The airport capacity estimation system is developed based on the capacity model and estimation method. The simulational result verifies the reality of the model and the method using actual flight data of Shanghai Hongqiao Airport.