杨小舟蛾短期预测预报研究

杨小舟蛾（ＭｉｃｒｏｍｅｌｏｐｈａｔｒｏｇｌｏｄｙｔａＧｒａｅｓｅｒ）是吉林省西部杨树（Ｐｏｐｕｌｕｓｓｐｐ．）主要食叶害虫，曾于１９８７～１９８８年和１９９７年在长岭、乾安、双辽、扶余等县（市）大面积发生，危害猖獗，在短期内将树叶全部吃光，造成了很大的经济损失。该虫种群增殖很快，极易在短期内暴发成灾，因此对杨小舟蛾预测预报的研究，不论在理论上还是在生产应用上都具有十分重要的意义。１　研究方法１．１　生物学特性的研究于１９８９年和１９９８年春在杨小舟蛾的发生区——吉林省长岭县太平川林场和前郭县王…

Study on Shortern Forecast of Micromelopha troglodyta

This paper deals with the bionomics of Micromelopha troglodyta.The pest has 2 generations a year and overwinters in pupa in the fallen leaves.In the food lack condition,the last instar larvae is compelled to pupate in advance,the mass of the pupa is much lighter than that of normal pupa.If the mass of the pupa is below 90 mg,it can not emerge.The mathematical model between the probability of the female and the pupa mass is Yi=-6.22+3.256 logXi.The mathematical model between amount of the female eggs and the pupa mass is Yi'=-1 886.3+1 014.4 logXi.Applying these mathematical models,we can forecast the population dynamics of M.troglodyta.