资本积累、模仿与创新 --从美国和日本的经济发展看落后国家如何赶超

现代经济增长大体上可以分为三个阶段.第一阶段的增长动力主要来自资本的积累;第二阶段的增长更大程度上取决于对先进技术的模仿;当进入先进发达国家行列以后,第三阶段的增长将主要依靠自主创新.由于自主创新需要大量的研究与开发投入,成本比前两个阶段大得多,同时风险也大得多,因此,相对落后的、处于第一、第二发展阶段的国家是有可能赶上甚至超过处于第三阶段的先进国家的.美国和日本的发展经历证明了这一点.

Capital Accumulation, Imitation and innovation --Ways of Catching up and Surpassing for Economically Backward Countries in the Light of the Economic Development of USA and Japan

Modern economic growth can be basically divided into three stages. The growth in the first stage mainly depends on capital accumulation; the growth in the second stage depends more on imitation of advanced technology. After becoming an advanced developed country, the growth in the third stage depends mainly on independent innovation. Since independent innovation requires large amounts of R&D investment, the losses and risks are much bigger than those in the first two stages. Therefore, relatively backward countries at the first and second stages are Iikely to catch up and even surpass advanced countries at the third stage. The development of the United States and Japan have proved it.