“新常态”下中国化石能源生态价值与代际补偿核算

经济“新常态”对经济增速与结构优化提出了新要求，也为缓解能源压力与改善生态环境提供了契机。本文采用生态足迹模型核算了1991年至2013年中国化石能源生态价值补偿，结合“新常态”经济特征，预测化石能源生态足迹的变化轨迹并对代际间化石能源生态价值补偿进行责任划分。结果显示在放缓经济增速和约束能源下，中国化石能源生态价值补偿存在增速降低甚至总额下行的可能，在2032年左右能够达到峰值，与中国承诺二氧化碳峰值的时间接近。靠前代际负更多责任的分配方式更符合公平与效率的要求，不仅可以减轻后代人的补偿压力，同时也可以兼顾到当代人的经济发展与能源技术进步。

The Calculation of Ecological Value and Intergenerational Compensation of Fossil Energy in the Chinese "New Normal" Economy

The “New Normal” economy puts forward new requirements to economic growth and structural optimization, and also provides an opportunity for easing energy pressure and improving ecological environment. Using the ecological footprint model, this paper accounts the ecological value compensation of fossil energy in China from 1991 to 2013, and combined with the characteristics of “New Normal” economy, predicts the trajectory of the fossil energy ecological footprint and distributes the intergenerational responsibility of ecological value compensation of fossil energy. The research result shows that under the slowdown in economic growth and the constraints in energy structure, it is possible that the growth and total amount of ecological value compensation of fossil energy would be reduced, and the total amount reach the peak near 2032, which is close to peak time of carbon dioxide committed by China. The distribution mode of former generation taking more responsibility accords more with the requirements of fairness and efficiency, which can not only ease the pressure on the compensation of future generations, but also take account of contemporary economic development and the progress of energy technology.