基于灰色Verhulst模型的因特网访问人数预测分析

本文预测因特网访问人数，为开展网络建设、应用及管理提供决策依据；分析了实测数据反映的特征，给出了基于灰色Verhulst模型的建模理据和预测分析的详细过程；对模型预测结果进行了分析验证，模型的拟合精度检验指标（C=0．09，P=1．00）达优。检验结果表明，所建立的Verhulst模型对同等实测数据的预测效果优于GMC（1，n）模型 。

The Prediction and Analysis of the Internet Access Population Based on the Grey Verhulst Model

The paper supports the decision-making of network construction,application and management by the prediction of the Internet access population,analyses the Internet access population in a special area and makes a gray Verhulst model based on the gray theory,verifies the gray Verhulst model,and predicts the intending trend of the Internet access population.A validation of the prediction results of the model and the precision test(C=0.09,P=1.00)show the model outperforms the GMC(1,n)model.