Simulating Solar Cycles in Northern and Southern Hemispheres by Assimilating Magnetic Data into a Calibrated Flux-Transport Dynamo |
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Authors: | Mausumi Dikpati Peter A Gilman Giuliana de Toma Siddhartha S Ghosh |
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Affiliation: | (1) High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3080 Center Green, Boulder, CO 80301, USA;(2) Scientific Computing Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305, USA |
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Abstract: | We use the flux-transport dynamo prediction scheme introduced by Dikpati, de Toma, and Gilman (Geophys. Res. Lett.
33, L05102, 2006) to make separate simulations and predictions of sunspot cycle peaks for northern and southern hemispheres. Despite the division
of the data, the skill level achieved is only slightly lower than that achieved for the sum of both hemispheres. The model
shows skill at simulating and predicting the difference in peaks between North and South, provided that difference is more
than a few percent. The simulation and prediction skill is achieved without adjustment to any parameters of the model that
were used when peaks for the sum of North and South sunspot areas was simulated. The results are also very insensitive to
the averaging length applied to the input data, provided the simulations and predictions are for peaks defined by averaging
the observations over at least 13 rotations. However, in its present form, the model is not capable of skillfully simulating
or predicting short-time-scale features of individual solar cycles. |
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Keywords: | Sun: magnetic field Sun: activity Sun: dynamo |
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