短期气候预测的出路在何方?

100年来短期天气预报成功地跨越了三大步：挪威学派、Rossby学派和Charney开创的数值天气预报。在“气候是天气的综合”这一错误思想的指导下,每一次短期天气预报的成功都引出了短期气候预测的热潮,相应地出现了大型天气学、超长波控制论和短期气候的数值模式预测方法。它们各自研究了几十年后,最终仍未见成效,使100年来短期气候预测的水平仍基本上是在原地踏步。作者认为短期气候预测出路在于：首先要坚决摒弃“气候是天气的综合”这一错误的指导思想,其次要将目前关于“气候系统”的抽象定义转化为具体的物质的定义,作者认为地热涡、地冷涡和形变锋等很可能就是具体的“气候系统”。描述这些“气候系统”演化的具体图像就是“地气图”。

How to Succeed in the Short-Term Climate Prediction

In the past 100 years, the weather forecast has passed three successful stages: Norway school, Rossby school and numerical model stage by Charney. But because the guidance thought that climate is the synthesization of weather is wrong, the short-term climate prediction is not so successful yet in the past 100 years. However there are also three stages, just followed each weather forecast stages: Grosswetterlage stage, ultra-long wave one and numerical climatic model one. The author proposed that the first successful stage of short-term climate prediction should materialized the climate system. The geothermal vortex etc may be the materialized climate system and the prediction map describing the ground temperature distribution may be equivalent to the weather map.