我国辐射相关癌症终生危险基线值估计

目的 介绍国际上常用的估算癌症终生危险的方法,估计我国几种与辐射相关癌症终生危险的基线值。方法 参考美国国立癌症研究所(NCI)终生危险的估算方法,利用已出版的我国肿瘤登记及人口学资料,估算我国与辐射有关的几种癌症终生危险基线值。结果 2007年,我国居民全癌终生危险为27.77%,肺癌为5.96%,女性乳腺癌为3.34%,白血病为0.14%,甲状腺癌为0.37%。其中,男性的全癌终生危险为32.74%,女性全癌终生危险为24.73%;城市居民全癌终生危险为36.47%,农村居民全癌终生危险为26.79%。结论 2007年,我国男性全癌终生危险高于女性,约为女性的1.25倍。城市居民的全癌终生危险约为农村居民1.35倍。我国癌症基线危险较日本等发达国家为低。

Estimation of baseline lifetime risk of developed cancer related to radiation exposure in China

Objective To introduce the general international method for estimation of lifetime risk of developed cancer, and to estimate the lifetime risk baseline values of several kinds of cancers related to radiation exposures in China. Methods The risk estimation was based on the data from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report(2010) and China Population & Employment Statistics Yearbook (2009), and made according to the method previously published by National Cancer Institute (NCI) in USA. Results The lifetime risk of all cancer in China in 2007 was estimated to be 27.77%,that of lung cancer 5.96%, that of breast cancer for female 3.34%, that of all leukemia 0.14%, that of thyroid cancer 0.37%. The lifetime risks of all cancer were estimated to be 32.74% for males and 24.73% for females, and that was 36.47% for urban residents and 26.79% for rural people. Conclusions The lifetime risk of all cancer for males in 2007 was about 1.25 times as much as that for females. The value of all cancer for urban residents was about 1.35 times as much as that for rural residents. The lifetime risk of developed cancers in 2007 in China is lower than that in the developed countries, such as Japan.