厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件与金华气候异数的对应关系

利用中国气象局整编的1968～2015年8月NINO综合指数和金华逐日降水量、日平均气温资料，采用合成分析方法研究了厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件与金华气候的对应关系，结果表明：1968年以来共发生12次厄尔尼诺事件和10次拉尼娜事件；金华年平均气温以0.033 ℃·a-1的速度上升，尤其是1985年至今呈明显波动增暖趋势，年降水量平均以1.14 mm·a-1的速度增加，且时段性分布特征明显；受厄尔尼诺事件影响的年份，金华年降水量偏多的概率大，在长期预测中有重要的指示意义，厄尔尼诺结束次年年降水量无明显规律可循；拉尼娜事件与年降水量对应关系的规律性不明显，受厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件影响的年份和结束次年年平均温度变化与全球气候变暖有很大的关系；1997～1998年、2014～2015年2次都是强厄尔尼诺事件，金华降水明显偏多，但持续时间不同，发展特点也有很大区别，后者将成为迄今为止持续时间最长的厄尔尼诺事件；据国家气候中心预测，2014～2015年厄尔尼诺事件至少持续到2015/2016年冬季，2015年金华年降水量偏多已成定局.

The corresponding relationship between EI Nino & LA Nina event and the characteristic of Jinhua climate

The corresponding relationship between EI Nino & LA Nina event and the characteristic of Jinhua climate had been analyzed by ABS(analysis by synthesis) based on the data of the NINO index on Aug. from 1968 to 2015 compiled by the Meteorological Bureau of China and data of daily precipitation and daily average temperature of Jinhua.The result shows that EL Nino event has happened 12 times while LA Nina has happened 10 times since 1986; The averaged yearly temperature of Jinhua rises at 0.033 ℃ per year and the growth trend of it becomes obvious especially since 1985.The annual precipitation rises at 1.44 mm per year and it has a distinct characteristics at time period.It also shows an important indicator for long term forecast for the probability of more annual precipitation is much greater under the influence of EL Nino. However, there are no rules to follow at the end of the following year,and LA Ninas influence has obscure affection.The transform of the averaged yearly temperature and global warming has a great relationship under the influence EL Nino/ LA Nina and the end of its following year.The annual precipitation is obviously more than others at strong EL Nino event from 1997 to 1998 or from 2014 to 2015,but it has different on their longevity and development features. The latter will be the longest which is expected to continue at least through the winter on 2015/2016 according to the National Climate Center forecast, which can lead an increase of annual precipitation of Jinhua in 2015.