汉江上游金水河流域近50年气候变化特征及其对生态环境的影响

利用5年滑动平均距平分析、线性回归分析、相关分析及Autoregression 模型等统计分析方法，分析了近50年（1957~2004年）汉江上游金水河流域年度和春、夏、秋、冬4季气温和降水变化特征及其对流域生态环境的影响。结果显示：近50年来金水河流域气候变化呈现气温升高、降水量减少的暖干化趋势。年平均气温总体上升了111℃，同时在上世纪90年代到本世纪初，年平均气温增幅最大，达到06℃；季节变化中，冬季增温最显著（〖WTBX〗p〖WTBZ〗<001）。年平均降水量总体下降了1196 mm，在1985~1997年间，降水量呈现显著波动下降趋势，最大降幅为3452 mm；而季节变化中，夏季下降最明显。在未来10年，流域内气温将持续增加，年平均气温将增加013℃，降水量将逐年减少，年平均降水量将减少78%。金水河流域过去近50年的气候变化对流域内的生态环境产生了较大的影响，从而加剧了流域生态系统的脆弱性，从一定程度上对南水北调中线工程的水资源安全构成了威胁。

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE JINSHUI RIVER BASIN OF THE UPPER HAN RIVER IN RECENT 50 YEARS AND ITS IMPACTS ON ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT

Statistics methods including linear regression analysis,correlation analysis and autoregression model have been utilized to investigate the annual and seasonal climatic change and its impacts on the ecological environment in the past 50 years (1957~2004) in Jinshui River Basin,Shaanxi.The results show that the annual mean air temperature has totally increased 111℃ with significant increase in winters in the past 50 years.In the early 1990s and 2000s,the annual temperature has increased most with a magnitude of 06℃. Annual precipitation has decreased 1196 mm with larger decrease in summer precipitation during the same time period.During 1985~1997,annual precipitation has decreased with the maxima of 3452 mm.It seems that the temperature of the basin will continually increase 013℃,while the precipitation will decrease 78% than before.The climate change in the past 50 years in Jinshui River Basin had led to dramatic impacts on the eco environment.The ecosystem is more vulnerable and it has threatened the water security for the Middle Line of China’s South to North Water Transfer Project.