大连国际航运中心建设SEA的系统动力学研究

国际航运中心建设是一项复杂的综合性系统工程,系统内存在着错综复杂的关系,可以采用解决非线性问题的系统动力学方法对其进行仿真模拟。针对目前战略环境评价技术方法的不完善,采用系统动力学方法,在分析国际航运中心系统的主要影响因素及其因果关系的基础上,建立了包括人口、经济、交通、能源和环境子系统的系统动力学模型,并利用大连市相关统计数据对模型进行了仿真模拟和验证。通过对仿真结果的分析和预测,符合实际情况,为规划的实施提供科学的决策依据。

Strategic Environmental Assessment for Construction of International Ship Center Based on System Dynamics in Dalian

The construction of international ship center is a complicated and comprehensive engineering system,and relation in the system are reticular.The system dynamic method is applied to simulating the system.Considering the faults of technique of Strategic Environmental Assessment,a method,System Dynamics,is introduced into Strategic Environmental Assessment for the construction of international ship center.Based on analyzing impact factors and effect of system of international ship center,model on system dynamics is established including population,economy,transport,energy and environment subsystem,and the model is simulated and tested with some statistic data in Dalian.It is concluded that emulational results is in accord with practice.Therefore,system dynamics is well applied in the SEA,and can provide basis on plan with scientific decision.