模糊可变集合与模型及在岩爆分级预测中的应用

在工程模糊集理论基础上，系统建立模糊可变集合理论、模型与方法，其中包括：差异函数的概念与定义、相对隶属度公式、模糊优选BP神经网络模型及级别特征值公式，并对相关公式进行了分析论证。提出模糊可变集合的预测方法，针对国内外一些岩石地下工程实例进行了分析，并用级别特征值对岩爆的发生与否及烈度大小进行预测，结果与实际情况吻合地较好，说明模糊可变集合综合预测方法是有效的。

MODEL OF VARIABLE FUZZY SETS AND ITS APPLICATION TO CLASSIFICATION PREDICTION OF ROCKBURST

The occurrence and intensities of rockburst are influenced by various factors and the influence degrees of these factors vary with different projects. To evaluate the various factors on rockburst, the concepts, definitions and methods of variable fuzzy sets are established based on fuzzy sets theory. Then, the formulas of difference functions and relative membership degree, model of BP neural network with fuzzy optimization, equation of rank feature values are presented, and relevant equations are analyzed. On basis of indexes standard intervals of rockburst with a series of underground rock projects in home and abroad by the presented methods, occurrence and intensities of rockburst with rank feature values are predicted. The predicted results agree well with the practical records, which shows that the proposed method is effective.