基于三点估计法的直流配电中心概率潮流计算

分布式电源呈间歇性/波动性,负荷呈随机性,利用概率统计理论研究基于不确定性量的电力系统规划、运行与控制已成为当前的研究热点.针对近年来不断增加的以风电、光伏为代表的分布式电源接入柔性直流配电网的现象,开展了概率潮流研究.以Nataf变换方法结合Cholesky分解进行不确定变量的相关性处理,提出了一种计及输入变量相关性...

Research on Probability Load Flow Calculation of DC Distribution Center Based on Three-Point Estimate Method

Distributed generation possesses intermittence and fluctuation as well as its load has the characteristics of randomness.At present,the probabilistic statistical theory based study on the power grid planning,operation and control becomes current research hotspots.In recent years the distributed generation represented by wind power generation and photovoltaic(PV)generation is connected into flexible DC distribution network increasingly,so it is necessary to research the probabilistic load flow.By means of Nataf transform combining with Cholesky decomposition,the correlative processing of uncertain variables was performed,and a method to calculate the probabilistic load flow in flexible DC distribution network by the three-point estimate method,which took the correlation of input variables into account,was put forward.Taking the first domestic five-terminal flexible DC distribution demonstration project,namely the DC distribution center,as calculation example,a three-point estimate method based unified DC probabilistic power flow calculation model was established.The effectiveness and rationality of the proposed algorithm are verified by calculation results.