| 核电厂概率安全分析中动态可靠性方法综述 |
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| 引用本文： | 张永发,童节娟,周羽,蔡琦.核电厂概率安全分析中动态可靠性方法综述[J].原子能科学技术,2012,46(4):472-479. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张永发 童节娟 周羽 蔡琦 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.清华大学 ;核能与新能源技术研究院，北京100084；2.海军工程大学 ;船舶与动力学院，湖北 ;武汉430033 |
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| 摘 要： | 用动态可靠性方法弥补传统事件树/故障树方法的不足，补充和完善现有核电厂的可靠性与安全性评估，已成为核电厂概率安全研究的一新发展点。近30年来，动态可靠性已具有相对成熟的理论基础——概率动力学，并形成了蒙特卡罗（MC）模拟和离散动态事件树（DDET）两类主要方法。本文简要介绍动态可靠性理论和方法的研究现状与技术特点，并对未来趋势进行分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 动态可靠性 概率动力学 蒙特卡罗模拟 离散动态事件树 |
Review of Dynamic Reliability Methodology in Probabilistic Safety Assessments of Nuclear Power Plants |
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| ZHANG Yong-fa
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TONG Jie-juan
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ZHOU Yu
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CAI Qi.Review of Dynamic Reliability Methodology in Probabilistic Safety Assessments of Nuclear Power Plants[J].Atomic Energy Science and Technology,2012,46(4):472-479. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yong-fa TONG Jie-juan ZHOU Yu CAI Qi |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2.College of Naval Architecture and Power, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China |
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| Abstract: | Dynamic reliability method can make up the shortage of traditional Event Tree/Fault Tree method.It can be used to complete the current reliability and safety assessment methods of nuclear power plants.In recent 30 years,a relatively perfect theory foundation(probabilistic dynamics) has been developed.On this basis,Monte Carlo simulation and discrete dynamic event tree were formed.The research situation and technical characteristics of the dynamic reliability theory and method were introduced.And the future trend of dynamic reliability was also discussed. |
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| Keywords: | dynamic reliability probabilistic dynamics Monte Carlo simulation discrete dynamic event tree |
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