基于期望车速的跟驰模型研究

期望车速是驾驶员驾车过程中依据道路条件、车流状况、所驾驶车辆性能等因素,经综合考虑后存在于自身心目中并认为可以实现的一种＂目标车速＂,它对行驶车辆的实际行车速度高低产生影响。为了反映车辆运行过程中不同驾驶员运行车速选择的差异,本文提出了基于期望车速的跟驰模型。该模型能够解释不同驾驶员在相同道路条件下选择不同行车速度的原因。在建立模型的基础之上,作者讨论了保持交通流稳定性的充分和必要条件。最后,文中给出了应用实例。结果表明：当驾驶员的期望车速接近均衡车速时,交通流是稳定的;反之,当驾驶员期望车速与均衡车速差异较大时,交通流的稳定性可能下降。

A Car Following Model Based on the Expected Speed of the Driver

Expectation speed is an objective speed the drivers desired when driving. It can be influenced by road,traffic condition and the vehicle performance,and it can affect the actual speed.In order to reflect the characteristics of drivers in selecting speed,a car following model based on the expected speed was proposed in this paper. The model could be used to explain why different drivers tended to choose diversity speeds under the same traffic condition. The necessary and sufficient conditions to maintain the stable traffic flow were also discussed in this paper. Then,an example was given. The resultsshowed that if the expected speed of the driver was closed to the equilibrium speed,the traffic was stable. Otherwise,when there is a big difference between the two,the traffic may be unstable.