产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法

为提高洪水预报的精度以及修正结果的稳定性,提出了产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法。该方法基于产流误差动态系统响应曲线修正方法,通过引入产流误差平稳矩阵,在计算方法中增添了稳定约束项,使时段产流修正值相互联系,增强了修正结果的稳定性。应用动态系统响应曲线,反演计算出较稳定的产流误差,对时段产流进行修正。将产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法应用于滩坑流域,并与产流误差动态系统响应曲线修正方法相比较,结果显示,对于流域的17场历史洪水,前者修正结果的稳定性明显优于后者,修正效果也有所改善,适用情况更加广泛。新方法具有一定的物理基础且不损失预见期,值得进一步推广与应用。

A system response correction method with runoff error smooth matrix

To improve the accuracy and stability of the real-time flood forecasting, this paper introduces a new error correction method named a system response correction method with runoff error smooth matrix (RESM), which is on the basis of runoff error correction based on dynamic system response curve (DSRC). The new method brings in a smooth matrix, a constraint item, to make different period of runoff series contact with each other, improving the stability of the results. DSRC is applied to calculate the errors of the runoff series to update the calculated runoff series. RESM method, as well as DSRC method, is applied in Tankeng basin. The results of 17 floods indicate that RESM method performs better than DSRC method in terms of the stability, the accuracy and the range. With the sound physical laws and no loss of the forecast period,the RESM method is well worthy of further applications.