岩土强度参数概率分布拟合及贝叶斯优化

岩土强度参数是工程设计以及工程核算中十分重要的参数，但在实际工程中，由于条件有限，从室内外试验中得到的试验数据难以确定工程中应采用的设计值。利用贝叶斯公式可以参考以往工程中积累的工程经验对实际工程中得到的岩土强度参数进行优化。论述了强度参数的单独以及联合分布的概率分布拟合、检验以及贝叶斯方法优化，提出了相关的贝叶斯优化公式。通过锦屏一级水电站左岸坝肩处近SW向结构面强度参数的优化，验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。

Bayes optimization and fitting research of probability distribution of geotechnical strength parameters

In geotechnical project, the geotechnical strength parameters ( ) are very important, their values exert a great impact to the safety of the project. In previous analysis, those parameters ( ) were studied independently, so that the correlation between them is ignored. On the basis of geotechnical parameters submitting two-dimension normal distribution, the Bayes method to optimize the probability distribution is introduced. The coefficient of variability of the geotechnical parameters after optimization is reduced greatly; the feasibility of this method is proved by using the example of Jinping Hydropower station.