电力市场环境下广东电力系统规划方法初探

  目的  在电力市场的新环境下，电力系统规划所包含的变量、制约因素、规划目标更多，复杂性更高，需考虑可靠性、经济性等多维因素，可以反映为负荷、电源、潮流、设备投退、政策、社会经济、商业模式、投资收益等多方面的不确定性因素，需要充分考虑这些不确定因素，建立更恰当的规划模型，整个电力规划的研究方法和手段都需要进一步优化。  方法  首先梳理了澳大利亚、美国PJM、欧洲等国外较为成熟的电力市场的现状，并对其电力系统规划的模式和方法进行了分析。  结果  结合广东电力市场发展的现状，有针对性的对电力市场环境下广东电力系统的规划方法进行了优化。不仅对电力规划工作的体制机制给出了优化调整建议，同时，根据传统的广东电力系统规划方法，从规划输入、项目分类、情景研究、电网经济效率评估和不确定性分析五方面进行了补充和改进。  结论  在广东现货市场的新环境下，通过建立合理的电力系统规划和评估体系，可有利于合理配置电源，实现网源之间的协调规划，更好地适应未来电力市场的发展。

Initial Investigation of Guangdong Power System Planning Method Under Power Market Environment

  Introduction  Under the new environment of power market， the power system planning contains more variables， constraints， planning objectives and complexity. The uncertainty variables include load， power supply， power flow， equipment retirement， policy， social economy， bussiness mode， investment profit， etc. It is necessary to establish appropriate plannnig model based on the complexity mentioned above. The research methods of the whole power planning and means need to be further optimized.  Method  Firstly， this paper reviewed the status quo of the more mature power markets in Australia， PJM in the United States， Europe and other foreign countries， and analysed their power system planning models and methods.  Result  Combined with the current situation of Guangdong power market development， this paper optimized the planning method of Guangdong power system under the power market environment. Not only did it give suggestions for optimizing and adjusting the institutional mechanism of power planning work， but also complemented and improved the five aspects of planning input， project classification， scenario study， grid economic efficiency assessment and uncertainty analysis according to the traditional Guangdong power system planning method.  Conclusion  Under the new environment of Guangdong spot market of energy， by establishing a reasonable power system planning and evaluation system， it can be beneficial to rationalize allocation of power sources， achieve coordinated planning between network sources， and better adapt to the future development of the power market.