浙江省人感染H7N9禽流感疫情半定量风险评估

目的: 评估浙江省人感染H7N9禽流感发生本地暴发疫情的风险，探索突发公共卫生事件风险的半定量评估方法。方法: 系统梳理人感染H7N9禽流感引起本地传播的风险评估指标体系，用层次分析法计算指标权重，再结合TOPSIS法计算风险综合指数。结果: 共识别人感染H7N9禽流感疫情风险评估一级指标4项、二级指标23项，权重值居前五位的依次为：发病率（0.0972）、休市关停措施（0.0718）、交易市场消毒措施（0.0673）、病死率（0.0651）和疫情波及范围（0.0616）。浙江省各地人感染H7N9禽流感本地暴发疫情的风险综合指数从高到低依次为：杭州（0.5910）、绍兴（0.5711）、嘉兴（0.5199）、台州（0.5198）、湖州（0.4662）、宁波（0.3828）、温州（0.3719）、金华（0.3392）、丽水（0.2727）、衢州（0.2001）和舟山（0.0508）。结论: 建立了人感染H7N9禽流感疫情风险评估指标体系，评估结果可为浙江省防控人感染H7N9禽流感疫情提供科学依据。

Semi-quantitative risk assessment of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza epidemic in Zhejiang province

Objective: To assess the risk of local outbreaks of H7N9 avian influenza infection in Zhejiang province and to explore the semi-quantitative assessment method for public health risks in emergency. Methods: Risk index system of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza caused by local transmission were reviewed. The weights of indexes were calculated by analytic hierarchy process, which was combined with the TOPSIS method to calculate the risk comprehensive index. Results: Four primary indexes and 23 secondary indexes were identified for risk assessment in local outbreaks of H7N9 avian influenza infection. The weights ranked on the top five were:morbidity (0.0972), closure measures (0.0718), sterilization measures (0.0673), fatality rate (0.0651), and epidemic spread (0.0616). The comprehensive index of the risk of local outbreaks of H7N9 avian influenza ranged from high to low were Hangzhou (0.5910), Shaoxing (0.5711), Jiaxing (0.5199), Taizhou (0.5198), Huzhou (0.4662), Ningbo (0.3828), Wenzhou (0.3719), Jinhua (0.3392), Lishui (0.2727), Quzhou (0.2001) and Zhoushan (0.0508). Conclusion: A semi-quantitative method has been established in this study, which provides scientific basis for prevention and control of H7N9 avian influenza epidemic in Zhejiang province.