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Psychohistory revisited: fundamental issues in forecasting climate futures |
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| Authors: | Danny Cullenward Lee Schipper Anant Sudarshan Richard B Howarth |
| Affiliation: | 1. Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources (E-IPER), Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305-5020, USA 2. Precourt Energy Efficiency Center, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305-5020, USA 3. Global Metropolitan Studies, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA 4. Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305-5020, USA 5. Environmental Studies Program, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA |
| Abstract: | Uncertainty in the trajectories of the global energy and economic systems vexes the climate science community. While it is tempting to reduce uncertainty by searching for deterministic rules governing the link between energy consumption and economic output, this article discusses some of the problems that follow from such an approach. We argue that the theoretical and empirical evidence supports the view that energy and economic systems are dynamic, and unlikely to be predictable via the application of simple rules. Encouraging more research seeking to reduce uncertainty in forecasting would likely be valuable, but any results should reflect the tentative and exploratory nature of the subject matter. |
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