Forecasting electric power generation in a photovoltaic power system for an energy network

Recently, there has been an increase in concern about the global environment. Interest is growing in developing an energy network by which new energy systems such as photovoltaic and fuel cells generate power locally and electrical power and heat are controlled with a communication network. We developed the power generation forecast method for photovoltaic power systems in an energy network. The method makes use of weather information and regression analysis. We carried out forecasting power output of the photovoltaic power system installed in Expo 2005, Aichi Japan. As a result of comparing measurements with prediction values, the average prediction error per day was about 26% of the measured power. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 167(4): 16–23, 2009; Published online in Wiley InterScience ( www.interscience.wiley.com ). DOI 10.1002/eej.20755