黄河水量统一调度方案实施精度分析

黄河水量统一调度就是综合考虑黄河预测来水、实际来水、各省(区)供水计划等因素,对黄河主要断面、主要干流区间和主要干支流来水进行预报,并制定调度方案。分析了1998-2004年黄河干流主要断面来水、主要干流区间来水和主要支流来水的年方案、月方案和旬方案的误差,结果表明:上游断面来水预报精度高于中下游断面来水预报精度,11-2月预报精度高于3-6月预报精度,旬方案预报精度高于年方案和月方案预报精度。

Accuracy Analysis on An Integrated Regulation Plan Implementation of the Yellow River Water

The integrated water regulation of the Yellow River is to consider the factors of predicted coming water,actual coming water and water supply plans of each province comprehensively,forecast the coming water from the main river reaches and main tributaries and prepare a regulation plan.The paper analyzes the errors of ten-day plan,monthly plan and annual plan of coming water from the main river sections,main reaches and main tributaries in the period of 1998~2004 and the outcomes show that the forecast accuracy of coming water from the upper stream section is higher than that of the sections in the middle and lower reaches,accuracy forecasted in November-February period higher than that in March-June period and ten-day plan higher than that of the annual plan.