一种战时航空弹药需求预测方法

针对目前航空弹药作战需求仅从总量考虑，忽视需求结构的问题。研究从总量及结构两个角度对作战需求进行综合预测，分别构建了航空弹药的作战需求总量预测模型及需求结构模型，对航空弹药作战需求进行更精准的预测。通过对近两次局部战争中的航空弹药需求量变化规律进行分析，得出航空弹药需求总量预测的威布尔分布模型，在需求总量预测基础上，结合航空弹药作战的具体情况，构建了航空弹药需求结构模型，运用层次分析法求解，获得航空弹药需求的最优结构，并结合实例对方法的有效性进行验证分析。研究得出的最优结构模型能够在一定条件下精准地预测战时航空弹药的需求量，为决策者提供可靠的参考及依据。

A Method of Forecasting Demand for Aviation Ammunition in Wartime

As the current method of forecasting the demand for aviation ammunition only focuses on the total amount but pays little attention to demand structure, this paper established two models, with one forecasting the aggregate demand for aviation ammunition in wartime and the other forecasting the demand structure, so that the calculation would be more accurate. The Weibull distribution was used to forecast the total amount of the wartime aviation ammunition demand in analyzing the aviation ammunition demand in the last two local wars. On the basis of total demand prediction, the aviation ammunition demand structure model was established by combining the specific situation of aviation ammunition operations. The optimal structure of aviation ammunition demand was obtained by applying the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to solve the problem, and the validity of the method was verified by analysis of cases. The optimal structure model proposed by this paper can accurately forecast the demand for aviation ammunitions in wartime under certain conditions and provide a reliable reference and basis for decision makers.