博弈论在预防化工企业生产安全事故中的应用

针对近年来化工企业生产安全事故多发,特别是重大以及特别重大生产安全事故频发,基于博弈论,以化工企业的收益和安全监管部门的收益为目标,构建博弈模型,对化工企业的安全投入与安全监管部门的监管进行了动态博弈分析,给出两者混合对策的纳什均衡,并深入研究分析博弈双方的演化过程。根据局部稳定性分析,在一定条件下,理性博弈双方演化对策与博弈双方的收益、成本支出、事故发生概率以及事故状态下经济损失等有关。研究结论可为化工企业的安全生产和安全监管部门的监管提供合理性和有效性的建议。

APPLICATION OF GAME THEORY IN PREVENTING PRODUCTION SAFETY ACCIDENTS IN CHEMICAL ENTERPRISES

Aiming at the problem of frequent production safety accidents occurring in chemical industry,especially major and particularly serious production safety accidents in recent years and based on game theory,the game model was constructed with the profits of the chemical enterprises and the benefits of safety supervision departments as the targets.A dynamic game analysis was carried out on the safety investment of chemical companies and the supervision of safety supervision departments.Then Nash equilibrium of the mixed countermeasures was presented.And an in-depth research and analysis on the evolution process of both sides of the game was carried out.According to local stability analysis,the evolutionary strategies of both sides of the rational game are related to the benefits of both sides,the cost,the probability of accidents and the economic loss in an accident under certain conditions.The research conclusions provide recommendations for the rationality and effectiveness of the safety in production in chemical companies and the supervision of safety supervision departments.