地气图预测全国月降水的实践总结

根据地热涡的移动规律和地热释放的持续性,我们设计了两种月降水的预测方法:(1)外推法,依据过去2~3个月地热涡和多雨区的移向、移速,外推下个月多雨区的位置;(2)"正多负少"规则,利用地热释放的持续性,对3.2 m地温月际变温为正的地区,预测下月多雨,月际变温为负的地区预测下月少雨("正多负少"规则)。此规则的历史拟合率约为65%。指出了5种不符合"正多负少"规则的情形及其可能原因。利用上述2种方法,从2005年9月开始进行全国降水预测试验,按全国统一评分方法,2年多来平均得分为67.5分,2007年12个月的平均得到70.5分。

Summary of Applying Soil Temperature to Forecast Monthly Precipitation

Based on moving rule of geothermal vortex and continuity of releasing underground heat,we designed two ways to forecast monthly total precipitation.The first is extrapolation method,we can extrapolate location of rainbelt of the next month according to move path and move speed of hot vortex of the rainbelt in the last 2 or 3 months.The second is rule of positive match along with more and negative match along with less.We forecast rains a lot the next month in areas that anomaly of underground temperature of 3.2 m is positive;it is rainless the next month in areas that anomaly of underground temperature of 3.2 m is negative.Actually,65% of the results make the rule sense.This article indicates 5 situations not suit for the rule and their possible reasons.Using the two methods,we experiment forecasting monthly total precipitation in China in September 2005.According to uniform national grade method,average score of recent 2 years is 67.5.It even reached 70.5 high in 12 months in 2007.