基于变权重理论的边坡稳定性未确知分析

针对目前常用的边坡稳定性分析模型在评价指标趋于边缘状态时容易出现“状态失衡”的情况，将变权重理论引入到边坡稳定性分析当中，并结合未确知测度理论，从地质条件、环境条件和工程条件3个方面选取对边坡稳定影响最大的12个指标来建立VW-UM边坡稳定性分析模型。模型构建步骤包括：先计算出各评价指标的常权重；再根据各指标取值情况，通过变权重理论计算更符合该项工程实际情况的变权重；最后运用未确知测度法得出边坡稳定性等级。将该模型应用到新桥矿、姑山矿、黄麦岭矿的岩质边坡稳定性分析当中，实践证明该模型在权重计算上具有优越性，在影响因素统计值处于边缘状态时取得的评价结果更符合工程实际。

Uncertainty Measurement Analysis of Slope Stability Based on Variable Weight Theory

When the evaluation index tend to the edge state，the model for slope stability analysis may result in“state out of balance” phenomenon.To solve the problem，the variable weight theory was introduced in slope stability analysis.The twelve most influential indices were selected from three respects including geological conditions，environment condition and engineering condition，to build the VW-UM analysis model for slope stability.In the model，constant weight must be calculated firstly.And then，variable weight which more coincidence with the real structure were calculated by variable weight theory based on the value of indices.The rank of slopes were taken by using uncertainty measurement theory at last.The model was used in analysis slopes of Xinqiao mine，Gushan mine and Huangmailing mine，the practice result reflected the superiority of the model in weight calculation.The evaluation result accord more perfectly with engineering facts when statistical value of indices tend to the edge stateual situation，provide a new method for reliability evaluation of emergency rescue system of underground mines.