基于三角模糊数的地下水饮用水源地水环境健康风险评价

为客观反映水体污染物对人体健康的潜在危害,基于三角模糊数理论,构建了水环境健康风险评价模糊模型,对石嘴山市地下水饮用水源地水环境健康风险进行了评价,分析了不确定信息对评价结果的影响。结果表明:健康风险评价结果对参数的不确定性不敏感;污染物浓度的不确定性对评价结果影响较大,不考虑污染物浓度变化,以平均浓度表示水体水质状况会导致风险评价结果偏小。石嘴山市地下水饮用水源地非致癌污染物健康风险极低,而致癌总风险均低于且接近1.0×10~(-4)a~(-1),Cr为各水源地首要的环境健康风险管理控制指标。水环境健康风险由高到低依次排序为第二水源地第五水源地第四水源地第一水源地。

Health risk assessment of water environment in drinking groundwater well fields based on triangular fuzzy number theory

In order to better determine the potential impacts of water contaminants on public health, a fuzzy model based on triangular fuzzy number theory was developed to evaluate the human health risk of drinking groundwater well fields in Shizuishan city in this paper, and then the effects of uncertainties on health risks were analyzed. The results showed that the health risk is not sensitive to the parameter-value-related uncertainty. The pollutant-concentration-related uncertainty plays an important role in the assessment. If the changes in concentration are not taken into account, the calculated risks will be smaller. By using the above model, we obtained the health risks of carcinogens and non-carcinogens in the drinking water well fields of Shizuishan. The chemical carcinogenic risks are much larger than the noncarcinogenic risks, which are all close to the permissible level of 1.0×10-4 a-1. Cr should be the priority concern in the water resource management due to the high carcinogenic risk. The human health risks of the water environment are ranked as follows: NO. 2 well field> NO. 5 well field >NO. 4 well field >NO. 1 well field.