生物质气化火灾爆炸事故复合型风险评价

为降低生物质气化火灾爆炸事故发生的概率,提出了一种将贝叶斯网络与bow-tie法相结合的风险评价方法.通过建立火灾爆炸事故的故障树并转化成贝叶斯网络,然后计算各基本事件的重要度,进而找出系统中导致事故发生的薄弱环节.采用bow-tie对薄弱环节进行分析,提出相应的预防措施与控制措施,并计算了薄弱环节采取控制措施后事故发生概率降低的幅度.该方法可精确找出导致事故发生的最主要原因及有效预防控制措施,达到有效降低生物质气化火灾爆炸事故发生概率的目的.

Integrated Risk Assessment of Biomass Gasified Fire and Explosion Accidents

In order to reduce the occurrence of fire and explosion accidents ， a risk assessment approach integrating Bayesian network and bow-tie analysis was proposed. Firstly， the fault tree is established and transformed into Bayesian network. Then the weak points which might lead to accidents can be pinpointed by calculating the importance of each basic event. The bow-tie analysis is given on the weak points to work out the precautions and control measures， and the reduction of accident frequency is calculated after taking control measures for the weak points. The reasons for such accidents can be found accurately by this approach， which helps to take appropriate precautions and control measures so as to effectively reduce the occurrence of biomass gasified fire and explosion accidents.