| 基于小波分析的月径流ARIMA预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘晓安,王金文,王海伟.基于小波分析的月径流ARIMA预测方法[J].水电自动化与大坝监测,2006,30(4):77-80. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘晓安 王金文 王海伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院,湖北省,武汉市,430074
2. 长江水利委员会水政水资源局,湖北省,武汉市,430010 |
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| 摘 要： | 将一种基于小波分析的自回归滑动平均求和（ARIMA）模型用于月径流的预测。首先利用小波变换良好的局部化特性，将月径流序列分解成不同时间尺度上的子序列；然后对各个子序列利用ARIMA模型进行预测。将采用基于小波分析的ARIMA模型的预测结果与直接使用ARIMA模型的预测结果进行比较，结果表明引入小波变换提高了月径流预报精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 月径流预报 小波分析 ARIMA模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-12-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-02-27 |
Wavelet Analysis-based ARIMA Method for Monthly Runoff Forecast |
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| LIU Xiao'an,WANG Jinwen,WANG Haiwei.Wavelet Analysis-based ARIMA Method for Monthly Runoff Forecast[J].HYDROPOWER AUTOMATION AND DAM MONITORING,2006,30(4):77-80. |
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| Authors: | LIU Xiao'an WANG Jinwen WANG Haiwei |
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| Abstract: | A wavelet analysis-based ARIMA model is proposed to forecast monthly runoff. With the help of the localization characteristic of wavelet transform, the monthly runoff series is first decomposed to sub-series on different time scales, and each sub-series is modeled and forecasted by the ARIMA model. Then, the forecast result from the wavelet analysis-based ARIMA model is compared with the result from the single ARIMA model. It is shown that the introduction of wavelet transform helps improve the precision of monthly runoff forecast. |
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| Keywords: | monthly runoff forecast wavelet analysis ARIMA model |
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