| 灰预测与时间序列模型在航天器故障预测中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 李培华,杨海龙,孙伶俐,邓忠民.灰预测与时间序列模型在航天器故障预测中的应用[J].计算机测量与控制,2011,19(1). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 李培华 杨海龙 孙伶俐 邓忠民 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 航天东方红卫星测控中心,北京,100094
2. 北京航空航天大学宇航学院,北京,100191 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 灰预测是灰色系统理论的重要组成部分,已成功应用于若干领域的预测;时间序列分析是定量预测方法之一;研究了利用以灰预测模型为基础,建立的残差灰预测模型和AR时间序列模型对航天器故障状态进行预测的方法;首先分析了灰预测模型以及残差灰色预测模型的建立过程,之后分析了AR时间序列模型的建立过程;然后利用所建立的模型进行航天器故障状态的预测,给出预测结果;研究表明,残差灰预测模型预测误差比基本灰模型降低,在特定的数据特征条件下也要优于AR时间序列模型.
|
| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测 残差灰色预测模型 AR时间序列 故障预测 |
Application of Gray Prediction and Time Series Model in Spacecraft Prognostic |
| |
| Li Peihua,Yang Hailong,Sun Lingli,Deng Zhongmin.Application of Gray Prediction and Time Series Model in Spacecraft Prognostic[J].Computer Measurement & Control,2011,19(1). |
| |
| Authors: | Li Peihua Yang Hailong Sun Lingli Deng Zhongmin |
| |
| Affiliation: | Li Peihua1,Yang Hailong1,Sun Lingli2,Deng Zhongmin2(1.Dongfanghong Satellite Limited Company,Beijing 100094,China,2.School of Astronautics,BUAA,Beijing 100191,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Gray prediction,one of the key parts of gray system theory,has been used in several fields.Time series analysis is one of the quantitative forecasting methods.Here,the methods to predict fault status of satellite based on gray model,residual gray model and AR time series model have been studied.Firstly,the gray model and the residual gray model are analyzed,and then the AR time series model is analyzed.Finally,use the models to predict fault status of spacecraft,and the prediction result is analyzed.It show... |
| |
| Keywords: | gray model residual gray model AR time series model fault prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
