基于WSR-TSS模型的煤矿顶板事故风险评估

针对煤矿顶板事故风险评估中对耦合风险因素发生的情景考虑过少难以定量表示风险发生概率等问题,本文构建了基于"物理-事理-人理"理论(WSR)和情景构建理论(TSS)的WSR-TSS模型.首先,从物理层、事理层和人理层构建煤矿顶板事故风险识别框架,分别识别出物理因素6个、事理因素2个和人理因素4个;其次,基于TSS理论对各...

Risk Assessment of Roof Accidents in Coal Mine based on WSR-TSS Model

In the risk assessment of coal mine roof accident, the scenarios of coupled risk factors are considered too little and it is difficult to quantitatively express the probability of risk occurrence. For this, a WSR-TSS model based on Wuli-Shili-Renli (WSR) and theory of scenario structuring (TSS) is constructed, which provides a new approach for roof accident risk assessment. Firstly, the risk identification framework of coal mine roof accidents is constructed from physical, administrative and human layers, in which, 6 physical factors, 2 rational factors and 4 human factors were identified respectively. Secondly, 44 two-dimensional risk scenarios and 48 three-dimensional risk scenarios are established with coupling of risk factors based on TSS. Finally, the WSR-TSS model is applied to the risk assessment of a roof accident in a coal mine. The result is that the coupling risk of roof breakage and safety awareness is the largest in the two-dimensional risk scenario, with a risk value of 0.598, and the coupling risk rate of roof breakage, support methods and safety awareness in the three-dimensional risk scenario is the highest, with a risk value of 0.423 1. The results show that the WSR-TSS model can comprehensively identify the risk factors of coal mine roof accidents, consider the scenarios of coupled risk factors and quantify them, and provide new ideas and reference for risk assessment of coal mine roof accidents.