北京新城规划人口预测研究——以昌平新城为例

结合北京城市总体规划(2004~2020)对各新城的功能定位,利用年龄移算法、考虑未来经济增长速度及劳动力需求等,对北京城市规划重点建设的新城之一—昌平的人口规模进行了预测研究。结果表明,自然增长情况下,昌平人口呈现下降趋势,由2000年的51.5万下降到2020年的48.9万;但随着北京城市中心区人口和产业的转移,昌平在疏解中心区职能方面将发挥巨大作用,其人口总量必将大幅度增加,机械增长是未来昌平区人口总量增长的主要原因。预测分析,2000~2020年,昌平区机械增长人口总量预计在52~63万人,2020年,昌平区人口超过100万。在人口大规模增长的情况下,需要采取一定措施,满足新增人口用水用地的需求,实现人口的顺利转移,保证其对昌平新城对北京中心城区职能的分担。

Population Prediction for New Town Planning of Beijing Municipality --A Case Study of Changping New Town

Based on the function orientation of the new towns in General Planning for Beijing Municipality(2004-2020) and the condition of future economic growth and labor force demand,this paper makes a population prediction of Changping using edge-glide algorithm.It is pointed out that the population amount will decline under natural population growth,from 515 thousand in 2000 to 489 thousand in 2020.Along with the population and industry transfer from center of the municipality to outer district,the new town will have strong impact on function remission of the central city area and the population will increase rapidly in Changping.It is predicted that there will be increase of 520-630 thousand in Changping from 2000 to 2020.So it's important to take measures to meet the requirement of population growth and alleviate the function of city zone.