区域土地利用变化对生态系统脆弱性影响评估——以广州市花都区为例

本文在分析生态系统脆弱性概念与评价方法基础上,以土地利用变化引起的生态系统服务价值改变为影响力指标,以社会经济发展程度表征社会经济适应能力指标,构建区域土地利用变化对生态系统脆弱性影响评价和和空间表达方法,将生态系统脆弱性研究拓展到人类(社会)—自然(生态、环境)耦合系统的综合分析与评价,以广州市花都区为例,从花都区、乡镇两个空间尺度上进行了评价。结果表明:(1)在1980～1990年、1990～2000年和2000～2005年三个时间段,耕地面积的变化对该区生态系统服务功能影响最为显著;(2)1990～2000年和2000～2005年间,研究区社会经济适应性指数保持为正,两期平均值分别为0.391和0.374;(3)从研究区1990～2000年和2000～2005年两期脆弱性空间分布来看,虽然适应能力的提高在一定程度上缓解了土地利用变化对生态系统的负向影响,但总体呈现脆弱趋势,且脆弱性严重的乡镇数在时间尺度上呈现增加趋势。

Assessment on vulnerability of ecosystems to land use change:A case study of Huadu District,Guangzhou City

Through the general comment of vulnerability of ecosystems and theoretical principles of vulnerability,a model to assess the vulnerability of ecosystems has been set up in this study.The ecosystem services change to land use is regarded as the impact index,and the GDP change stands for adaptive capacity index of social and economic development,by which the human and natural systems could be coupled.The ecosystem vulnerability of Huadu District,Guangzhou City has been analyzed from the integral-scale and town-scale respectively,as a case study.The results show that:(1) in 1980～1990,1990～2000 and 2000～2005,the change of arable land is the critical factor of ecosystem impact on land use change;(2) the adaptive capacity of 1990～2000 and 2000～2005 is 0.391and 0.374 respectively,keeping positive;(3) based on the spatial vulnerability maps of 1990～2000 and 2000～2005,the ecosystem in the study area tends to be vulnerable,and will be worse,despite the increasing positive adaptive capacity,and the number of districts which suffer the serious vulnerability is increasing.