A fuzzy system for evaluating the risk of change in construction projects |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Structural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University, Egypt;2. Department of Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough University, LE11 3TU, UK;1. ICIST, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, Lisboa 1049-001, Portugal;2. CESUR, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, Lisboa 1049-001, Portugal;1. Department of Civil Engineering, Tennessee State University, 3500 John A Merritt Blvd, Nashville, TN 37209, United States;2. Tennessee Department of Transportation (TDOT), Safety Office, United States;1. Department of Engineering Management, School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics, Tupei Building 403, South College Road 39, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China;2. Department of Construction Management, School of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;3. School of Investment & Construction Management, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, Liaoning Province 116025, China |
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| Abstract: | A major source of risk in construction is the potential changes occurring during the project lifetime. Changes in construction projects often result from the uncertainty associated with the imprecise and vague knowledge of much project information at the early stages of projects. IT systems for change management largely focus on managing reactive changes, in which changes are recorded and then propagated to the concerned project members. However, proactive change management is hardly dealt with. Proactive change management requires estimating the likelihood of occurrence of a change event as well as estimating the degree of change impacts on project parameters. A fuzzy system is proposed in this paper to maintain these requirements. The system simulates the relationships between change causes and effects, and is intended to facilitate proactive change management on projects. |
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