Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in European countries using integrated modeling |
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| Affiliation: | 1. CENSE – Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research, Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal;2. KanORS EMR, India;3. E4SMA S.r.l, Energy Engineering Economic Environment System Modeling and Analysis S.r.l., Italy;1. KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Teknikringen 72, Stockholm SE-100 44, Sweden;2. Queensland University of Technology, 2 George Street, Brisbane 4000, Australia;1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 204 E. Dean Keeton Street, Stop C2200, Austin, TX 78712-1591, United States;2. Energy Institute, The University of Texas at Austin, 2304 Whitis Ave Stop C2400, Austin, TX 78712-1718, United States;1. Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), Chair of Energy Economics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Hertzstraße 16, Building 06.33, 76187 Karlsruhe, Germany;2. Institute of Energy and Climate Research (IEK), System Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Wilhelm-Johnen-Straße, 52425 Jülich, Germany;1. Mechanical Engineering Department, De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines;2. Enrique K. Razon Logistics Institute, De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines;3. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, CA, United States;1. Institute for Energy and Transport, Joint Research Centre – European Commission, Italy and The Netherlands;2. University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Austria;3. Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University (DHBW), Stuttgart, Germany |
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| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered alternatives to internal combustion engines due to their energy efficiency and contribution to CO2 mitigation. The adoption of EVs depends on consumer preferences, including cost, social status and driving habits, although it is agreed that current and expected costs play a major role. We use a partial equilibrium model that minimizes total energy system costs to assess whether EVs can be a cost-effective option for the consumers of each EU27 member state up to 2050, focusing on the impact of different vehicle investment costs and CO2 mitigation targets. We found that for an EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction cap of 40% and 70% by 2050 vis-à-vis 1990 emissions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are cost-effective in the EU only by 2030 and only if their costs are 30% lower than currently expected. At the EU level, vehicle costs and the capability to deliver both short- and long-distance mobility are the main drivers of BEV deployment. Other drivers include each state’s national mobility patterns and the cost-effectiveness of alternative mitigation options, both in the transport sector, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or biofuels, and in other sectors, such as renewable electricity. |
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| Keywords: | Electric vehicles Optimization Technology costs European countries |
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