电力系统多级负荷预测及其协调问题（二）基本协调模型

电力负荷预测是一个包含空间、时间、属性等多维度多级别的复杂体系.文中针对具有"直接加和"特性的多级负荷预测问题,借鉴电力系统状态估计思想,建立了多级负荷预测的基本协调模型,提出了相应的基本协调方法.在基本协调模型中引入预测可信度的概念,详细分析和比较了不同可信度情况下基本模型的协调结果.引入调整系数和相对调整系数的概念,阐明了基本协调方法的物理机理.为便于比较不同协调方法的协调效果,提出了协调效果的单项评价指标及综合评价标准.最后指明了基本协调模型的应用场合,并用实例验证了所提出的方法的有效性.

Power System Multilevel Load Forecasting and Coordinating Part Two Basic Coordinating Model

Electrical load forecasting is a complicated multilevel system including dimensions of space,time,attributes,etc.In order to solve the problem of multilevel load forecasting and coordinating,the basic coordinating model based on power system state estimation is proposed.By introducing the concept of forecasting credibility into this coordinating model,the coordinating results under different combination of credibility are compared.Furthermore,the mechanism of this basic coordinating model is illuminated by the concepts of adjustment coefficient and relative adjustment coefficient.In particular,the criterion for evaluating the performance of different coordinating models is also given.The situations where this basic coordinating model can be used are also pointed out.In conclusion,numerical example is used to validate the effectiveness of this novel coordinating model.