深圳市空气污染气象条件标准体系的研究

为建立适合深圳的空气污染气象条件标准,对目前开展的空气污染气象条件预报进行客观的检验,基于2011—2013年地面常规气象观测资料和风廓线雷达资料,对能见度和影响因子(降雨、地面风速和低空风速)进行了相关分析。根据不同气象条件对空气污染的不同影响,将空气污染气象条件分为1—6级,等级越高,越有利于空气污染,并由此建立了深圳市空气污染气象条件等级的计算方法和流程。计算结果与实况基本相符,平均基本准确率达到75.0%,其中1级和4级基本准确率分别达到83.3%、85.2%,业务运行良好。该方法对于小概率事件(如热带气旋外围环流影响)的计算能力较差,6级的基本正确率仅为52.7%。所以针对特殊的低能见度小概率事件需要进行进一步的研究。

Research on Standard System of Air Pollution Meteorological Condition in Shenzhen

In order to establish suitable standard of air pollution meteorological condition for Shenzhen and examine objectively current forecasts of air pollution meteorological condition,based on the ground conventional meteorological observation data and the wind profile radar data from 2011 to 2013, correlation analysis was applied between the low visibility and impact factors such as rainfall,the ground wind speed and surface layer wind speed,the air pollution meteorological condition grades were divided by the significant influence factor and probability of low visibility.Define the actual level of those elements through analyzing the probability of low visibility at different levels of meteorological factors.The higher probability of low visibility,the worse air pollution meteorological conditions.Then the calculation method of air pollution meteorological condition grade and process were established for Shenzhen.Calculation result showed that the seasonal change of this grade was obvious.It was the lowest in summer,higher in spring and autumn,the highest in winter,which was consistent with the actual.Average basic accuracy reached 75.0%,the level 1 and level 4 reached 83.3% and 85.2% respectively and this system run well in business.The calculation was worse for small probability events and the accuracy of the Grade six was only 52.7%.Further studies and corrections were needed for the special low visibility of the small probability events.