| Abstract: | A nonlinear two-dimension dynamic model of storm surge (SS) and astronomical tide(AT) was used to investigate the effects of SS and AT on expected sea level rise (SLR) at principalcoastal stations in the Shanghai region and to estimate numerically the probable maximum water lerel for2010 - 2050. Evidence suggests tha SLR causes reduction of SS; that its influence on SS depends on theintensity and path of a tropical cyclone and the station locality; tha the SLR's effects on AT vary periodi-cally, with the peried being the same as tha of the AT's: and that as the SLR increment grows, its impactincreases; below mean sea level (MSL) the effect is positive at rising tide and negative at ebb tide, andvice versa for the effect above MSL. Study of the probable maximum water level (by assuming SLR, SSalong favorable tropical cyclone's path, its possible maximum intensity and effectivee spring AT at a rangeof set paths of Cyclones 5612, 8114, 9417) showed that the probable maximum water level is 740, 745,and 751 cm in the years 2010, 2030, and 2050, respetively, over the target region. |
