深圳电网负荷与气温的关系研究

为了解深圳地区的电力负荷特性,本文对2012—2014年深圳电网负荷与气温的关系进行了全面地分析。通过引入负荷-最高气温梯度和负荷-最低气温梯度,建立了高温负荷日日最高负荷与日最高气温和日最低气温的关系模型,并通过相关系数证明了其有效性。据此获得了深圳高温负荷日负荷受气温影响的规律,对提高深圳负荷预测的准确性,指导深圳电网的运行和规划有重要的意义。同时,本文也经过计算得出深圳年最大制冷负荷的比例可达35%左右,为深圳夏季负荷的重要组成部分。

Research on Relationship between Load of Shenzhen Grid and Temperature

Togetthe power load characteristics of Shenzhen, this paper analyze comprehensively the relationship between the maximum daily load and temperature in Shenzhen from 2012 to 2014. By introduction of load-maximum temperature gradient and load-minimum temperature gradient, we establish the relation model between the maximum daily load and the maximum daily temperature, minimum daily temperature, and prove its effectiveness by the correlation coefficient.Based this, we obtain the law of the maximum daily load influenced by temperature, which has important significance to improve the accuracy of load forecasting and guide the operation and planning of power grid. Thenby calculation, this paper also get the ratio of Shenzhen annual maximum cooling load, which can reach about 35%. It plays an important part in the summer load of Shenzhen.