Optometric manpower in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico: estimates and projections, 1982-2025

BACKGROUND: The 1982 study investigated the potential impact of the IAUPR School of Optometry on the adequacy of supply of optometrists in Puerto Rico for the years of 1980-2000. This article is designed to: (1) update the 1982 study; (2) appraise the accuracy of the 1982 projections; (3) re-evaluate the status of optometric manpower in Puerto Rico through the year 2025; and (4) provide the School of Optometry with information necessary to make informed judgments about future enrollments. METHODS: Estimates of supply are based on data from the Colegio de Optometras de Puerto Rico, the Sección de Oftalmología de la Asociación Médica de Puerto Rico, and the enrollment and graduation registries from the School of Optometry. Requirements are based on estimates of annual effective demand, provider-to-population ratios, per capita demand, and optometric productivity. RESULTS: Optometrists comprised 52.2% of Puerto Rico's actively practicing vision care manpower in 1995, with a mean optometrist-to-population ratio of 8.2 per 100,000. The number ranged from 28 in Mayagüez to 107 in San Juan. Under different assumptions regarding supply, productivity, and demand, surpluses and deficits are estimated and projected for the years 1995 to 2025. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on the assumptions used, an undersupply or an oversupply of optometrists may be found in Puerto Rico, currently and in the future. Projections of supply and demand predict a considerable range--from a surplus of 961 optometrists to a deficit of 2,085 optometrists in the year 2025.