基于二分群体决策的水文预报择优组合方法

针对多种水文预报的组合问题,提出一种基于二分群体决策的水文预报择优组合方法。通过决策群体、决策断面、能力向量、预报收益等模型的建立,将水文预报择优问题转化为一个二分决策问题;根据决策质量给出择优求解和参数初值的率定方法,并将各参数对预报精度的影响加以分析。实验表明：该方法能够有效的从两种预报方案中选择出更加接近实测值的预报结果,且具有76%以上选择正确率和更高的预报精度。

Hydrological forecasting preferred and combination methods based-on dichotomous group decision

A hydrological forecasting preferred method is put forward based on dichotomous group decision to solve the combination problems of multiple hydrological forecasting.In this method,a preferred problem can be transformed into one of dichotomous group decision by using a model for calculations of decision group,decision section,ability vector,and forecasting income.In this work,parameter calibration and preferred solution were determined by decision quality,and the forecasting accuracy and influences of model parameters were analyzed.Results show that from two forecasted alternatives,the method can effectively pick the one closer to the measurement at a success rate higher than 76%,and thus it produces higher forecasting accuracy.