基于蒙特卡罗模拟的EPC项目投标报价方法

在EPC模式下的工程建设招投标中,投标报价的合理确定不仅决定投标人能否中标,且对工程项目中标后的盈利和亏损亦起到关键作用。在分析EPC项目投标报价的风险因素基础上,研究了各风险因素的分布规律,利用蒙特卡罗随机模拟的方法,将EPC项目投标报价中的随机风险因素拟合成随机变量进行模拟,从而得到合理的投标报价。实例应用结果表明,在考虑各随机风险因素的情况下,得出的工程造价范围比较符合工程建设实际所发生的费用,且具有较高的可信度。在置信水平不同时,工程造价的取值范围也不同,因此需根据承包商的风险偏好来确定最终的投标报价。

Bidding Quotation of EPC Project Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

In the construction project bidding under the mode of engineering procurement construction (EPC), reasonable bidding quotation not only determines the bidder whether will win the bid, but also plays a decisive role in whether the project will profit or not in the future. Based on the risk analysis of EPC projects in bidding quotation, the probability distribution of the risk factors is studied. The risk factors of EPC projects are fitted with random variables. The reasonable bidding quotation is obtained by using the method of Monte Carlo simulation. The results of instance application show that the scope of the project cost is close to the actual cost considering random risk factors, which has a highly credibility. While the confidence level is different, the project cost is also different. Therefore, the final bidding quotation is determined according to the confidence level of the contractor.