现阶段我国少数民族人口发展的回顾与展望

现阶段我国少数民族人口的发展,呈现为整体增长较快、各少数民族之间发展不平衡、阶段性波动大等特点。造成该现象的原因,主要是与新中国建立以来特别是改革开放以来经济发展、社会稳定、民族团结的宏观社会历史背景,在计划生育工作中国家对少数民族“适当放宽”的政策以及1982～1989年间因按国家政策更改民族成分引起的人口数量异常变动和某些技术性因素相关。未来我国少数民族人口的发展,在"适当放宽"政策和民族通婚两大因素的作用下,将继续维持在高于汉族的增长率水平上运行,预计到2050年,我国少数民族人口将达到2亿人以上。

Retrospect and Prospect on Current Population Development of Ethnic Groups in China

Currently the population development of ethnic groups in China has such characters as rapid growing speed, the unequilibrium among the ethnic groups and great fluctuation at various stages. These characters could be caused by such factors: the macro-background of economy development, social stability and national unification since the liberation, " relatively loosening" strategy which only fits for ethnic groups in the work of family planning, the abnormal population alternation for changing nationality identity under the state policies from 1982 to 1989, and some technological factors. Under the function of "relatively loosening" strategy and exogamy, the population development of the ethnic groups will keep increasing speed to over 200 million in 2050 as predicted.