高铁对中国城市群生产性服务业集聚的影响

以中国16个城市群为案例，基于2007和2017年地级以上行政单元生产性服务业从业人员数据和铁路Origin-Destination（O-D，起讫点）旅行时间、班列数据，结合静态视角下生产性服务业集聚格局与高铁网络的空间关系分析和动态视角下的多元回归分析，探讨高铁对城市群生产性服务业集聚的影响及其空间分异。结果表明：1）高铁对生产性服务业集聚程度有积极影响，但影响效果在空间上不均衡；东部地区，尤其是珠三角、长三角和京津冀城市群受积极影响较显著，而同一城市群内，期初具有集聚优势的高铁城市为主要获益者。2）城市群经济发展水平和空间结构制约高铁影响效果，具备多中心结构的东部城市群内，普遍出现生产性服务业由核心城市向周边支撑条件良好的沿线城市相对扩散的现象。3）除时空压缩效应外，直达班列所代表的客运组织对于高铁影响力的形成具有重要作用；同时，高铁也通过城市人口集聚、市场需求扩大、信息化水平提升和地方政府积极参与的途径间接作用于生产性服务业。

Effect of High-speed Rail on Producer Services’ Agglomeration in Chinese Urban Agglomerations

Taking 16 Chinese urban agglomerations as research cases, this paper studied the effect of high-speed rail on producer services’ agglomeration in urban agglomerations, and its spatial variation based on the data of producer services’ employees of prefecture-level cities, railway origin-destination travel time, and train data for 2007 and 2017. The research was carried out in two steps, from static and dynamic points of view. The first was a static analysis of the spatial relationship between producer services’ agglomeration patterns and the high-speed rail network. The second analysis used the multiple linear regression model, taking the dynamic increment of producer services’ agglomeration level during 2007-2017 as a dependent variable. The conclusion consists of three viewpoints. First, high-speed rail positively contributes to the progress of producer services’ agglomeration, although this effect is concentrated mainly in eastern urban agglomerations, especially the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration, the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. Within urban agglomerations, cities with a higher producer services’ agglomeration level in 2007 have benefited more from high-speed rail operations. Second, the effect of high-speed rail is restricted by the stage of economic development and the spatial structure of urban agglomerations. Relative diffusion of producer services from core cities to peripheral cities with sufficient support conditions along high-speed railways is more likely among eastern urban agglomerations because of their polycentric spatial structure. Third, besides the time-space compression effect, the organization of passenger transportation represented by the number of trains per day also significantly influences the agglomeration level of producer services. Population agglomeration, market demand increment, information level promotion, and positive government involvement are indirect approaches of the effect.