基于CA-Markov的南昌市城市增长边界划定研究

为防止城市无序扩张、空间结构混乱等问题,有必要划定城市增长边界,提高土地利用效率,实现可持续发展。以南昌市为例,利用2000,2010年和2016年Landsat TM遥感影像数据,结合CA-Markov模型和建设用地适宜性评价,划定南昌市2020年和2025年城市增长边界。结果表明:①根据建设用地适宜性评价结果,得到刚性边界范围内城镇用地面积为1 294.88 km~2。②利用CA-Markov模型模拟预测得到2020年和2025年南昌市弹性边界范围内城镇用地面积分别为648.99 km~2和739.24 km~2。③通过各区面积统计结果可以得到,新建区和南昌县城镇面积增长较快,划定结果与南昌市未来发展重点相一致,南昌市未来将重点打造新建区的九龙湖新区、儒乐湖新区和南昌县的瑶湖新区。因此基于CA-Markov模型划定城市增长边界有利于缓解经济快速发展和资源短缺之间的矛盾,控制城市粗放型扩张,提高土地利用效率,对于南昌市未来扩张方向具有一定的指导作用。

Delimitation of urban growth boundary of Nanchang City based on CA-Markov

In order to prevent urban sprawl and urban spatial structure disorder, defining growth boundary for the Nanchang City is necessary for improving land use efficiency and achieving sustainable development. By using 2000, 2010 and 2016 Landsat TM remote sensing image data, the CA-Markov model and the construction land suitability evaluation, the Nanchang urban growth boundary in 2020 and 2025 was delimited. The results showed that: (1) According to the evaluation result of the suitability of construction land, the urban land area within the rigid boundary was 1294.88km2. (2) According to the simulated result by CA-Markov model, the predicted urban areas were 648.99km2 and 739.24km2 in the elastic boundary of Nanchang City in 2020 and 2025, respectively. (3) By the area statistics of the districts, the areas of the Xinjian district and Nanchang County were growing rapidly, which was consistent with the future development of Nanchang City. Nanchang City will focus on building Kowloon lake new district, the Rule Lake new district and the Yaohu Lake new district. It is shown that delineating the urban growth boundary based on the CA-Markov model is conducive to alleviate the contradiction between rapid economic development and resource shortage, control the extensive expansion of the city and improve the land use efficiency, and has certain guiding function for the future expansion direction of Nanchang city.